Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle United meet at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday night in a high-stakes UEFA Champions League league-phase finale, with automatic Round of 16 qualification on the line.
Both sides enter the final matchday locked on 13 points, knowing that only a win guarantees a top-eight finish. Anything less—draw or defeat—would likely consign the loser to the playoff round and add further pressure to already congested schedules.
What’s at Stake
PSG, the reigning Champions League holders, hold a marginal advantage due to their table position, but with identical records between the two teams, there is little room for calculation. Luis Enrique’s side must win to avoid the embarrassment of missing direct qualification.
Newcastle face a similarly stark equation. Eddie Howe’s side have been formidable at St James’ Park but inconsistent away from home in Europe. A victory in Paris would mark a major statement; failure could mean navigating a difficult playoff route.
PSG: Firepower, But Little Margin for Error
PSG’s league-phase campaign has swung wildly between dominance and vulnerability. Eye-catching wins over Atalanta (4-0), Barcelona (2-1), Bayer Leverkusen (7-2) and Tottenham (5-3) highlighted their attacking ceiling, yet a damaging 2-1 defeat at Sporting CP has left them exposed heading into the finale.
The good news for PSG is the return of several key figures. Achraf Hakimi is back after AFCON, while João Neves and Fabián Ruiz strengthen midfield control. Lucas Hernández returns from suspension, and Nuno Mendes is expected to be fit despite a minor knock.
Vitinha has been the standout performer in Europe, currently PSG’s top scorer in the competition with six goals, underlining his growing influence in decisive matches.
Newcastle United: Dangerous on the Break
Newcastle arrive in Paris after a convincing 3-0 Champions League win over PSV, though their domestic form took a hit with a 2-0 defeat at Aston Villa. The Magpies’ away struggles in Europe remain a concern, but their pace and verticality make them dangerous opponents for any side.
Injuries have ravaged Eddie Howe’s squad. Several defensive and midfield regulars are sidelined, leaving Newcastle reliant on a youthful core and transitional play. Nick Woltemade has emerged as a key midfield presence, while wide players such as Anthony Gordon and Anthony Elanga (if selected) offer counter-attacking threat.
Team News
Paris Saint-Germain
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Available: Achraf Hakimi, João Neves, Fabián Ruiz, Lucas Hernández
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Doubtful: Kang-in Lee (thigh)
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Fitness check: Nuno Mendes (knock)
Predicted XI (4-3-3):
Chevalier;
Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes;
Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz, João Neves;
Doué, Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia.
Newcastle United
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Out / Doubtful:
Bruno Guimarães (ankle, doubtful), Joelinton (thigh), Jacob Murphy (hamstring), Valentino Livramento (hamstring), Fabian Schär (ankle), Emil Krafth (knee), Jamaal Lascelles (fitness)
Predicted XI (4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1):
Pope;
Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall;
Tonali, Miley;
Elanga, Woltemade, Barnes (or Gordon);
Wissa.
Head-to-Head
Newcastle hold the edge in the brief history between the sides:
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Newcastle 4–1 PSG (2023/24 UCL group stage)
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PSG 1–1 Newcastle (return leg)
PSG are still searching for their first competitive win over the English side.
Tactical Outlook
PSG are expected to dominate possession and territory, using Hakimi’s overlapping runs and the creativity of Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia to stretch Newcastle’s depleted defense. Controlling transitions will be key after recent lapses.
Newcastle’s best route lies in fast counters, targeting space behind PSG’s advanced full-backs. If Gordon or Elanga find room early, PSG could be tested despite territorial control.
Prediction
With key players returning and the urgency of the situation, PSG are rightly favored at home. Newcastle’s resilience and counter-attacking threat could keep the contest alive, but sustaining pressure for 90 minutes in Paris may prove difficult.
Prediction:
PSG 2–0 Newcastle United or PSG 2–1 Newcastle United
A home win would send PSG straight into the Round of 16, while Newcastle would be left to fight through the playoff round.
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