The third round of group matches did not take much time to get over. Still, it was a drag. This World Cup has already seen eight more matches than the entirety of the previous iteration. The 64 games in Qatar were enough to give us a winner among the 32 participating teams. The 72 games (yet) in the USA, Canada and Mexico have seen only a third of the 48 participating countries being eliminated. There are still 32 teams left. There are still 32 games left. Five rounds of knock-out football await.
The World Cup, as ever, has found compelling storylines and beautiful moments to keep us on our toes, but that energy saw a significant drop-off through the third round of games.
There were huge results, of course, like South Africa’s surprising win over a disappointing South Korea, Ecuador’s come-from-behind victory against Germany, Belgium’s five goals against New Zealand, Spain trumping Uruguay 1-0, and massively entertaining draws between Portugal and Colombia and Austria and Algeria. But all in all it was too much for too little.
Many teams treated the third game as a formality and as a chance to rotate the squad. Mexico, with a bit of farewell-tour emotional energy, subbed in Ochoa for what will certainly be his last World Cup outing against a rather hapless Czechia.
Brazil’s anticipated clash against Scotland was decided all too soon owing to comical Scottish defending. With nine changes in the starting line-up of the reigning champions, Argentina’s game against Jordan had the feel of a pre-tournament send-off friendly.
In one of the most hyped up games in the group stages, the stakes were quite low. Norway fielded their second string as Haaland was rested. France did not change much, and Dembele’s frankly outrageous first-half hat-trick powered them to a 4-1 win that had no impact on the group standings.
The fact that the table of third-placed sides could only be finalised after all group games were over meant that some sides had to wait long before finding out whether they were through or not.
The ding-dong 3-3 draw between Austria and Algeria changed nothing in terms of their standings in Group J, but ended up sealing the fate of Iran, who went home after three draws in three.
Iran, South Korea and Scotland ended their group campaigns with 3 points each. As did Senegal. But having the luxury of playing long after the other three sides, Senegal clearly knew exactly what they needed to make it into the knockouts.
The only way to ensure a fair and exciting group finale in this format is to play all 24 games of the final round simultaneously, which is a logistical impossibility and just wrong because of how much the fans will miss out. The previous system of qualification, contested within the confines of the groups, worked much better and felt much fairer.
Only Uruguay, South Korea and Turkey can be categorised as sides that missed out on knock-out qualification by going against the pre-tournament consensus. Then again, that consensus was hardly one etched in stone.
Turkey, playing only their third World Cup and first in two decades, has a habit of arriving as dark horses at tournaments only to turn out quite uninspiring.
South Korea are regulars at the World Cups, but they have qualified for the knockouts only three times. Only once, as co-hosts in 2002, did they reach the second knockout round.
Uruguay, a historic powerhouse, entered the tournament with wide chasms developing within the Bielsa project. There were quite a few commentators who expected a meltdown, which seemed prudent as the tournament progressed. Uruguay got unceremoniously dumped out, marking their second consecutive group-stage exit.
Not only is this a World Cup entirely devoid of the drama of shock exits, but it is also a World Cup in which the favourites could allow upsets to happen without jeopardising their qualification chances.
It will be the least surprising development if Infantino uses the 2026 group stages as evidence that the World Cup needs further expansion to 64 teams, with the top two from 16 four-team groups entering the knockouts. For FIFA, that must seem like the best of both worlds: many more matches and much more revenue, along with group stages that are not essentially meaningless, all for the little price of further diluting the competitive level. I do not have high hopes.
Before the knock-outs can finally begin, let us take a quick look at the rolling rankings of the eight favourites. It’s a minor shock that only 7 of the 8 have advanced from the group stage as the top-ranked side in their group.
8. Portugal – As the only side among the favourites to not top their group, I have little choice but to put Portugal here. Even though Portugal’s only men’s major international tournament victory came after a disappointing group stage in Euro 2016, they will not be happy with coming second in the group because that hurls them towards the tougher side of the knockout brackets.
7. Germany – Germany managed six points, while all the teams ahead of them acquired 7 or more. But that is not the only reason for their lowly rankings. There remain questions regarding all three departments and about the tactical direction. The management’s insistence on an inconsistent Neuer who looks his age does not seem to be the best of ideas. While it is difficult to glean too much from a defeat that came after they had secured first place in the group, Germany did not look like a credible contender in the final group game.
6. Brazil – Brazil have bagged back-to-back 3-0 wins to see off the group stages and have only conceded once yet, that too against Morocco. Such a showing should have granted them a better rank than 6th, but they lack all-around balance and seem all too reliant on Vinicius and, to some extent, on Cunha to bail them out.
5. England – It should be noted that there is little to split England, Spain and the Netherlands. All three picked up a couple of wins and a draw each. England gets the lower rank because they have looked toothless for long stretches against relatively weaker opponents, and because their options in the wider areas look underwhelming or misfit.
4. Spain – They have had a similar problem of often being toothless against weaker sides, but they have not conceded once yet, and they look a little more assured as a unit. They managed the physical aggression of a desperate Uruguay with a professionalism expected from sides primed for a deep run.
3. Netherlands – They look exciting, having already scored 10 times, which is the joint-highest among all teams this tournament. They have a dynamic and sometimes unpredictable attack. Incorporation of Brian Brobbey has provided them with a useful focal point up front. It is unfortunate that one of Morocco and the Netherlands will have to return home after only the first knock-out round.
2. Argentina – It will be a stretch to conclude that Argentina has definitely been a better side, across the group stages, than England, the Netherlands or Spain. But Argentina did win all three games rather comfortably and secured their place in the comparatively less difficult half of the knock-out brackets. Even though it was against unfancied debutants Jordan, the fact that players other than Messi registered their names in the scoresheet feels like a welcome development.
1. France – Seemingly head and shoulders above the rest, France’s attack has the capacity to blow the best of teams out of the water. Dembele and Mbappe have eight goals between them in this World Cup already, and they have clicked as an effective duo in the stage where it matters most. They look destined to play in a third consecutive World Cup final, with their abundance of riches in creative areas and matchless squad depth across positions. Their weakest link is the goalkeeper Maignan, but even he stepped up to save a penalty against Norway.
Thankfully, there’ll be no more rankings or group games. Thankfully, there will be three weeks’ worth of knock-out drama to satiate our World Cup cravings.
Read more – World Cup 2026: Searing Reality Check for Asian Football
Also see – Africa Makes History as Nine Teams Reach World Cup Last 32
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