World Cup favourites ranked after the First Round

The eight most likely teams to win the 2026 World Cup, according to betting odds, are France, Spain, England, Portugal, Argentina, Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands. While there are a few other sides, like Morocco, Japan, Croatia and Colombia, who are well capable of outperforming some of these eight teams, it is very unlikely that any of them may go on to win the tournament. At the completion of the first round of games in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, let’s rank the performances of the eight favourite sides.

It will be an entirely pointless exercise, because there is little suggestion of massive correlation between a team’s performance in the first match and their chances to lift the World Cup trophy, but it will be a fun exercise.

The narrative and expectations around top teams evolve at a spectacular pace during these tournaments, and very often, retrospection smooths out these evolving contours of opinion. This list, which will also recur after the end of the next two rounds of group games, will engage with the volatile, unstable currents of football narratives that shape our spectatorship during a big tournament.

8. Portugal 

The mindless determinism of picking a centre-forward whose legendary past exploits have been rebranded into a credit card that buys him automatic selection does not help the case for Portugal. But even more worrying is the lack of imagination in the attacking third in a team so packed with creative talent.

A team with three-fourths of the ball possession should not be limited to 3 shots on target. More worrying than the result is the performance that saw a DR Congo team master almost as many shots and rack up similar xG figures as Portugal despite the mismatches in possession and passing statistics.

7. Spain 

The Spanish join their Iberian neighbours at the lower end of this table. Their problems are also quite similar. But Spain has some mitigation. Their first-choice attack did not start the game, and Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha dropped a tremendous performance. A lack of proper runs in behind and often very predictable build-up play had hampered Spain’s prospects in the game.

6. Brazil

That first half against Morocco was a difficult one for the five-time winners. Granted, Morocco is one of the toughest sides to play against these days, and Brazil did okay in the second half, but they look way too disjointed and often unsure about themselves. The midfield was easily overrun, and the attacking plans relied more on ad hoc moments of creative spark than on well-drilled patterns and movements.

5. Netherlands

The Dutch did not look like the best of sides, but they were also not quite that disappointing. Given Japan’s recent performances, a draw against them is not in any way a bad result. The Netherlands had to work very hard to break the Japanese defensive shape.

But crucially, despite missing their all-time top goalscorer Depay, the Netherlands had enough to breach the opposition defence twice. Summerville seems like one of the players to watch out for in the World Cup. The Dutch defence, though, seems prone to lapses of concentration.

4. Germany

They won 7-1! But that came against a Curacao side that sort of gave up after the German onslaught in the later part of the first half. German attack can take plenty of positives, but the fact that Curacao scored an equaliser and seemed to grow into the game at a point will temper some of that optimism. After two World Cups with losing starts and group-stage exits, this result feels like a happy throwback for the Germans.

3. Argentina

Algeria are not as weak as Argentina made them look. Also, they kept a clean sheet, which does not sound like much until you remember that the only other team on this list to do so is Spain. Spain scored none. Argentina scored thrice. All three of them came courtesy of the man whose agility and sharpness were under quite a bit of scrutiny before the tournament started. It was a confident performance by the reigning champions.

2.  France

The profligate first-half performance cost them the first place in this list. Senegal, a very good side, looked totally overmatched against France’s sleek, dynamic attack in the second half. Alongside the awe-inspiring attack, Rabiot did a fantastic job marshalling the French midfield and their defensive line-up remains one of the best in the tournament.

1. England

Is it coming home? After great showings in four major tournaments back to back from 2018 to 2024, nobody will be shocked if it does. The first half saw two typically well-taken Harry Kane goals (a penalty and a header from a set piece) and two Croat equalisers that were kind of freakish and entirely preventable, respectively. Again, like France, it all changed in the second half.

England scored two more goals and produced the best football I have ever seen the Three Lions play in a World Cup. It was a performance reminiscent of the 6-goal victory against Iran in Qatar, except this one came against a much more stringent and acclaimed defence.

None of the eight favourite sides have lost in their first game. Four have drawn, and four have won. Given the structure of the group stage this time, none of them seem likely to consider a group stage exit. We’ll keep an eye on them and come back with our rolling rankings once the second round of games comes to a close.

Read more – World Cup 2026 in Numbers: The Stats That Tell the Story So Far

Also see – World Cup Day 7: Kane Equals Lineker Record, Ronaldo blanks, Díaz Dazzles

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