World Cup favourites ranked (again) after the Second Round

I should have been more careful. When, last week, I decided to rank eight favourites to win the tournament, it seemed like a straightforward task. But it is not anymore. Ranking eight teams, all perched at the topmost position in eight different groups playing entirely separate sets of opponents of varying quality, suddenly feels reductive. But having announced that the rankings will be back, I cannot simply chicken out.

Brazil, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Argentina and France won their second group game. Only England, among the favourites, failed to clinch three points with a shutout against Ghana in the second round. Brazil, Spain, Portugal and Netherlands, having been held to draws in the first round, have returned to winning ways in quite emphatic fashion. Germany, Argentina and France have bagged back to back wins.

Given the vast differences in quality and kind of opponents, it is difficult to read much into the performances. Yes, some of the favourites have fared better than the rest but the compromised jeopardy of a diluted group stage means none of the favourites will find it complicated to secure knock-out qualification.

That’s exactly why, despite such a high-scoring, and honestly entertaining flood of group-stage games that has filled our days since the tournament began, I cannot help but mourn the death of the 32-team world cup where the group stages led to a thrilling climax with double headers.

One can argue that there will be double headers this time too and the qualification for the third-placed teams promises a lot of drama. I would like to differ. With the older format we had the results and positions being contested only within the group where a team knew whether they were through or not by the end of their games.

This time teams in third place have to wait until all the groups are played out to know whether they’re in or out. And their fate, unlike in a 32-team tournament, does not hinge just on the results of the group they are parts of.

Despite this sense of deflation, I will try and rank the eight favourite sides. The fact that the stakes have been lowered in regards to group stage performances makes such ranking more vibe-based. The difference between these eight teams is hardly a question of quality, rather it becomes a ranking based on how these sides have dealt with their group fixtures relative to the strength of the teams they had to play.
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8. Brazil – It feels harsh to put Brazil at eighth after their easy victory against Haiti. Brazil is also one of a few favourites to have already played one of the stronger sides in Morocco. So their low ranking already comes with caveats. That being said, Brazil’s on-pitch synchronisation has been underwhelming. Vinicius had to do some heavy lifting to make Brazil’s attack workable. Despite beating Haiti comfortably, Brazil is yet to provide the fans with a statement performance.

7. Portugal – Unlike Brazil, Portugal has announced their arrival in style with a brilliant attacking performance against the debutants Uzbekistan with their talisman scoring twice and the midfield looking like a well-oiled machine. But at the same time, such a performance was always expected from a star-studded side like Portugal against the relative minnows. Portugal are yet to play what looks on paper like their toughest test in the group stages, that’s also a reason for their not-so-flattering position in the rankings as of now.

6. Spain – Their performance against a generally stingy Saudi Arabian defence merits plaudits. With the youngster Yamal back in the starting eleven and scoring, they look like a unit capable of exploiting opponents’ short-comings in a more unpredictable and incisive manner. Still like Portugal, they are yet to go through what is in theory their biggest test, Uruguay, in the group stages. That, like Portugal, counts against them in the rankings.

5. England – A 0-0 draw against a less fancied Ghana was not ideal but also it was not really a scare, owing to the fact that they had won their game against Croatia, their closest competitors on paper, with a flamboyance and verve that England has rarely expressed in recent tournaments, especially against technically on-par opponents. England should have had a better ranking on the back of that, but three of the four teams ahead of them have won both their games.

4. Netherlands – Netherlands, like England has drawn one and won one and their positions in this list could easily have been switched. But a 2-2 draw against Japan is a better result than the draw England managed. Moreover, they scored five in one of the most memorable attacking performances in the world cup against a well-stocked Sweden. If England plays Netherlands at any stage of this tournament, England will be heavily favoured; but as of yet, in my vibe-based ranking about how each favourites are navigating the group stages, Netherlands are ahead by a whisker.

3. Argentina – Despite being one of the only two teams in this tournament to have kept consecutive clean-sheets in back-to-back wins, the other such side being Mexico, Argentina’s performances haven’t been that convincing. Their opponents have lacked any bite in attack which leaves the reigning champion’s defence quite untested yet. In what sounds like a familiar refrain, their dependence on a 39-year old Messi in attack, is also counting against them. But their rankings get a little boost owing to the fact that they are yet to play debutants Jordan, the weakest team in the group on paper.

2. Germany – Germany managed to come out with a win after trailing against a less-fancied opponent in Ivory Coast after flattening Curacao. They won their second game at the injury time, but the discernible shift in momentum they engineered and adaptations they made in their attacking strategy at the latter periods of the game after the introduction of a focal point in Undav, are bound to fill them with optimism. Germany, after a long time in a world cup, shows solid tournament know-how and mettle in overcoming a one-goal deficit.

1. France – Olise-Dembele-Mbappe-Barcola is a frightening quartet that has shown signs of working together like an exuberant orchestra. France has won both games without ever looking vulnerable as such. After scoring three past Senegal, they also put three past Iraq. While their defenders remain quite untested in this tournament, man-for-man the French defence is one of, if not the most trustworthy and all-round capable back-lines in international football. With such depth across the squad, and a clinical attacking unit that can bulldoze past most teams even when one or two of their primary attackers are not having best of days, France seems to be most self-assured among the eight favourite sides.

We will be back with the rolling rankings after the third round of group stages, but that does not sound much exciting given all the favourites are comfortably going to qualify. They might not even lose a single game between them. Still, I will get back to it. Not only because its fun in some ways but also because it gives me a chance to whine about the bloated group stages which I am failing to remain at peace with.

Read more – World Cup favourites ranked after the First Round

Also see – Record Breaker, History Maker: There Is Simply Nobody Like Messi

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