Few expected the final matchday in Group F to be this finely balanced. Japan and Sweden head to Dallas Stadium on Thursday knowing that one result could shape the rest of their World Cup journey.
The Samurai Blue have put themselves in a commanding position after taking four points from their opening two matches, while Sweden bounced from jubilation to despair in the space of a week. Graham Potter’s side demolished Tunisia in their opener before being humbled 5-1 by the Netherlands, leaving qualification hanging in the balance.
For Japan, victory would almost certainly guarantee top spot. Sweden, meanwhile, know that anything less than three points could leave their fate dependent on results elsewhere.
Match Preview
Japan have quietly become one of the tournament’s most impressive teams.
After battling back twice to earn a 2-2 draw with the Netherlands, Hajime Moriyasu’s side produced one of the standout performances of Matchday Two, brushing aside Tunisia 4-0 with a display that combined technical precision with ruthless efficiency.
Daichi Kamada opened the scoring inside four minutes before Ayase Ueda struck twice to continue his excellent tournament. Junya Ito completed the rout as Japan controlled possession for long periods and barely allowed Tunisia a sight of goal.
More impressive than the scoreline was Japan’s composure. Their passing remained crisp under pressure, transitions were swift, and the defensive structure rarely looked vulnerable.
Sweden arrive under very different circumstances.
Confidence was sky-high after a convincing victory over Tunisia, but the Netherlands exposed defensive frailties that Graham Potter will need to address quickly. Brian Brobbey and Cody Gakpo ran riot as Sweden suffered a bruising 5-1 defeat that significantly dented both their goal difference and confidence.
Yet the Scandinavians remain firmly alive.
With Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres and Anthony Elanga available, Sweden possess enough firepower to trouble any defence on their day. Potter’s biggest concern will be restoring defensive organisation without sacrificing the attacking threat that earned them three points in their opening match.
The tactical battle promises to be fascinating.
Japan will attempt to dominate possession through Kamada and Ao Tanaka before releasing Junya Ito and Keito Nakamura into wide areas, while Sweden are expected to remain compact before breaking quickly through Isak and Gyökeres.
Team News
Japan have no fresh injury concerns following their comprehensive victory over Tunisia. Moriyasu is expected to stick with the side that impressed on Matchday Two, meaning Ayase Ueda should once again lead the attack after his brace.
Captain Takehiro Tomiyasu continues to marshal the back three alongside Hiroki Ito and Ko Itakura, while Zion Suzuki is set to retain his place in goal.
Sweden also have a fully fit squad available. Graham Potter is unlikely to make wholesale changes despite the heavy defeat to the Netherlands, although Anthony Elanga is pushing for a starting place after making a lively impact from the bench.
Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres are expected to continue as Sweden’s strike partnership.
Form Guide
Japan: W-D-W-W-W
The Samurai Blue are unbeaten in five matches and have conceded just two goals during that run. Their disciplined approach has made them one of the tournament’s most difficult teams to break down.
Sweden: L-W-D-L-W
Sweden have shown they can score goals, but defensive inconsistency remains a concern after conceding five against the Netherlands.
Predicted Lineups
Japan: Suzuki; Tomiyasu, Itakura, Hiroki Ito; Doan, Tanaka, Kamada, Nakamura; Junya Ito, Ueda, Kota Sano.
Sweden: Nordfeldt; Hien, Lindelöf, Lagerbielke; Ayari, Karlström, Bergvall, Gudmundsson; Elanga; Isak, Gyökeres.
Prediction
This promises to be one of the most entertaining fixtures of the final group matchday.
Japan have looked more balanced throughout the tournament and enter the contest with confidence firmly on their side. Sweden undoubtedly possess the attacking quality to cause problems, but unless Potter can quickly repair the defensive issues exposed by the Netherlands, they may struggle to contain Japan’s fluid movement.
Expect Sweden to create chances, but Japan’s organisation and clinical finishing could prove decisive once again.
We Say
Japan 2-1 Sweden
Kick-off: Thursday, June 25, 2026, 11:00 PM GMT (4:30 AM IST, June 26)
Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Competition: FIFA World Cup 2026 – Group F
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