With five games remaining and Wolves already condemned, the fight for survival has become the most compelling drama in English football. Tottenham’s unthinkable decline, West Ham’s fragile recovery, Forest’s European distraction, and Leeds’s nervy safety cushion — we assess each club’s chances of beating the drop.
For the second consecutive season, the promoted clubs entered the Premier League with history stacked against them. Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton had all gone straight back down in 2024-25 — the second time in English top-flight history that all three promoted sides were relegated after a single season. The burden on Sunderland, Leeds United, and Burnley was to break the pattern.
One of them has. Sunderland, back after eight years away, have established themselves comfortably in midtable — a remarkable achievement under Régis Le Bris. But the other two have been dragged into a relegation battle that has become, by some distance, the story of the 2025-26 season. Not because of Burnley, who are all but mathematically condemned, but because of the club that has taken their place in the bottom three: Tottenham Hotspur.
Here is how the bottom of the table stands after matchday 33, with five games remaining.
15th — Leeds United: 39 points 16th — Nottingham Forest: 36 points 17th — West Ham United: 33 points 18th — Tottenham Hotspur: 31 points 19th — Burnley: 20 points (relegation all but confirmed) 20th — Wolverhampton Wanderers: 17 points (relegated)
Two clubs are already down. The real contest is for the third relegation spot — and possibly the fourth, if Forest or Leeds stumble. What follows is a club-by-club breakdown of how each side arrived here, what lies ahead, and whether they will survive.
Tottenham Hotspur — 31 points, 18th
Relegation probability (Opta): 57.2%
There is no way to soften this: Tottenham are enduring the worst season in their modern history. They have not won a Premier League match in 2026. Their 15-game winless streak is one short of the club’s all-time record, set between December 1934 and April 1935. Only Derby County in 2007-08 (18 games) and Sunderland in 2002-03 (17 games) have had longer winless runs to start a calendar year in Premier League history. Both were relegated.
Spurs have collected six points from the last 45 available. They have managed only two home wins all season — across the entire English football league system, only relegated Sheffield Wednesday have a worse home record. This is the first time in 49 years that Tottenham have been in the relegation zone this deep into a campaign, recalling the dark days of the 1976-77 season, when the club was last demoted from the top flight.
The managerial carousel has been dizzying. Ange Postecoglou oversaw a 17th-place finish last season and departed. Thomas Frank replaced him but lasted barely four months before being sacked in February after two wins in 17 league matches, with the club in 16th. Igor Tudor came in and survived 44 days. Roberto De Zerbi was then appointed on a five-year contract, bringing top-tier credentials from his time at Brighton. But the Italian’s arrival has not yet produced a win: a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland was followed by a 2-2 draw against Brighton in which Spurs squandered a lead through a 95th-minute equaliser.
De Zerbi insists he can win all five remaining matches. His remaining fixtures offer a mix of opportunity and peril: Wolves away (Saturday), then Aston Villa away, Leeds at home, Chelsea away, and Everton at home. The Wolves trip is a near-must-win against the league’s bottom club. But Leeds, Chelsea, and Villa are all fighting for something — safety, Europe, or both — and Spurs’ inability to hold leads or close out games makes each fixture a fraught proposition.
The paradox is that De Zerbi has appeared the first Spurs manager this season capable of getting a coherent performance out of the squad. There is tactical structure, a semblance of purpose. But structure without points is an academic exercise. Two wins and a draw from five games could be enough to reach the 37-38 points typically needed for survival. Whether this group of players — scarred by months of defeat, managerial upheaval, and four red cards — can summon that level of consistency is the central question.
Verdict: In the most danger. The Opta supercomputer gives them a 57.2% chance of going down. Their winless streak, poor home form, and psychological fragility all point towards relegation, though their remaining fixtures include at least two winnable games.
West Ham United — 33 points, 17th
Relegation probability (Opta): 38%
West Ham’s season has been a study in institutional dysfunction followed by grinding, workmanlike recovery. Graham Potter was sacked in September after a dire start, amassing one win in five. Nuno Espírito Santo — the same Nuno who had been dismissed by Nottingham Forest days earlier — was brought in as replacement, creating one of those ironies that only the Premier League can produce.
Nuno’s impact has been tangible if unspectacular. West Ham’s recent form has steadied: two wins and two draws from their last five matches, including a cathartic 4-0 demolition of Wolves and a battling 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace that confirmed Wolves’ relegation while moving the Hammers two points clear of Spurs. They have kept back-to-back clean sheets in the league for the first time since February 2025.
The difficulty lies in what comes next. West Ham’s remaining fixtures read: Everton (home), Brentford (home), Arsenal (away), Newcastle (away), and Leeds (home on the final day). The Arsenal and Newcastle trips are brutally tough. But the home games against Everton and Leeds are winnable, and the Brentford fixture, against a side in seventh but with little left to play for, may also present opportunities.
Nuno has been characteristically stoic. He has refused to name a points target, telling Sky Sports instead that his side simply needs to keep fighting. West Ham’s supporters know better than most that 40 points is no guarantee of safety: the club was relegated in 2002-03 with 42 points, the highest tally ever recorded by a demoted side in a 38-game Premier League season. That painful memory haunts the current situation.
The two-point cushion over Spurs is thin but meaningful. West Ham’s superior recent form — and Tottenham’s near-total inability to win — means the Hammers are broadly expected to survive. But a loss to Everton on Saturday would tighten things dramatically, and goal difference could yet become decisive.
Verdict: Likely to survive, but not safe. Their defensive solidity under Nuno is their greatest asset, and their head-to-head record against Spurs in terms of recent form is significantly better. A final-day match against Leeds could be decisive if both sides still need points.
Nottingham Forest — 36 points, 16th
Relegation probability (Opta): Low, but not negligible
Nottingham Forest’s season is one of the strangest in recent Premier League history: they are simultaneously fighting for survival in the league and chasing glory in the Europa League, having reached the semi-finals — their first European last-four appearance since 1984, in the days of Brian Clough.
The managerial situation has been typically chaotic under owner Evangelos Marinakis. Nuno Espírito Santo was sacked in September after his relationship with the owner deteriorated; Ange Postecoglou, freshly departed from Spurs, replaced him and steadied the ship before his own exit paved the way for Vítor Pereira. It is Pereira who has overseen the club’s remarkable European run, culminating in a 2-1 aggregate victory over Porto in the quarter-finals, with Morgan Gibbs-White’s deflected goal at the City Ground sending the stadium into raptures.
But Europe has come at a cost. Forest’s league form has been inconsistent, and their 36 points leave them only five clear of the bottom three. The 4-1 comeback win against Burnley — in which Gibbs-White scored a hat-trick — was a crucial result, but their remaining league fixtures are punishing: Chelsea (home), Newcastle (away), Manchester United (home), with a Europa League semi-final against Aston Villa sandwiched in between, and Bournemouth on the final day.
The dual-competition burden is significant. Chris Wood limped off with a knee injury during the Porto match, having only just returned from a six-month absence. Callum Hudson-Odoi and Murillo also picked up knocks. For a squad already stretched, the prospect of meaningful games on two fronts every week is a gruelling ask.
Forest have the fifth-worst goal difference in the division, and their remaining opponents are almost all fighting for something — European places, the title, or their own survival. Yet the five-point cushion is genuine. Two wins from five league games would almost certainly secure safety, and Forest’s players have shown a resilience and collective spirit that their rivals in the bottom third have struggled to match.
Verdict: Should survive, but the Europa League schedule is the wild card. If Forest prioritise Europe — understandably, given the historic opportunity — they could lose ground in the league rapidly. A final-day meeting with Bournemouth may yet carry unexpected significance.
Leeds United — 39 points, 15th
Relegation probability (Opta): Very low
Leeds have been the quiet success story of the bottom half. Promoted from the Championship last summer alongside Burnley and Sunderland, Daniel Farke’s side were widely tipped to struggle, and for long stretches of the season they did. But a strong recent run — beating Manchester United 2-1 and Wolves 3-0 — has opened an eight-point gap over the bottom three with five games to go.
That cushion should be enough. Leeds’s remaining fixtures include Burnley (home), Brighton (home), Tottenham (away), a potential dead rubber against Forest, and a final-day trip to West Ham. The Burnley match should yield three points against an already-relegated side. Brighton at home is trickier, but Leeds have been excellent at Elland Road recently. The away games at Spurs and West Ham could be fraught — but by then, Leeds may already be safe.
The complicating factor is the FA Cup. Leeds face Chelsea in Sunday’s semi-final at Wembley, and Farke must manage the distraction of a potential cup run alongside the primary objective of staying up. But eight points is a formidable lead, and Leeds’s recent momentum — combined with the struggles of those below them — means survival is firmly in their own hands.
Verdict: All but safe. A catastrophic implosion would be required for Leeds to go down from here, and nothing in their recent performances suggests one is coming. The bigger question for Farke is whether the club can build on this season rather than simply survive it.
The Wider Picture: What Makes This Relegation Battle Different
The traditional narrative of Premier League relegation involves small clubs overwhelmed by superior resources. This season upends that entirely. Tottenham Hotspur — a club that reached the Champions League final in 2019, inhabits a £1 billion stadium, and retains a squad that includes international players across multiple positions — are genuine relegation contenders. Their decline has been so precipitous, so sustained, and so multifaceted that it resists any single explanation.
Four managers in 12 months. A 15-game winless streak. The worst home record outside the already-relegated clubs. A squad that has spent less than a fifth of its total playing time in winning positions all season. If Tottenham go down, it will rank among the most extraordinary relegation stories in English football history — a saga of institutional failure at almost every level, from boardroom to pitch.
West Ham’s predicament is less dramatic but no less precarious. Nuno Espírito Santo has found defensive solidity, but the Hammers’ goal difference remains among the worst in the division, a legacy of the calamitous early-season spell under Potter. Should survival come down to goal difference, that debt could prove fatal.
Forest, meanwhile, find themselves in the uniquely surreal position of potentially playing in a Europa League final while being relegated from the Premier League. It is a scenario so absurd that it has already become a hypothetical talking point among pundits — though Forest’s five-point cushion makes it unlikely.
Five games remain. At least two of the surviving clubs will be safe. At least one — possibly two — will not. The margins are razor-thin, the stakes are existential, and the Premier League’s most compelling storyline of the season is not at the top of the table. It is at the bottom.
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