World Cup 2026: Five pre-tournament predictions

World Cup 2026: Five pre-tournament predictions | For a sport that is so meticulously data-driven at the top level, football still remains wonderfully alive for diverse analytic opinions because the data only tells the facts and omits the context that provides the story.

And in tournaments like the World Cup, with a glorious and evocative past, stories are what fans seek out. In the World Cup, where a team plays only a handful of games and, if they go deep, most are one-off knockout games, they have little control over who their opponents are; fortune plays a greater role. That further makes the World Cup amenable to wilder speculations.

And wild speculations are going to be what I am about to do here. The World Cup is upon us, and it is time for predictions. But a 48-team tournament, owing to its allowance of eight of the twelve third-placed teams into the knockout rounds, is trickier and less exciting to predict game by game.

Rather, we are going for a thematic set of predictions, where I put forward my heavily vibe-based opinions on what will happen in the next month or so. None of them is going to be particularly outlandish, but most of them will run somewhat contrary to what I am served as common takes in mainstream football media.

1. Erling Haaland will remain quite far from any serious crack at the Golden Boot.

The best striker of the generation, who has an outrageous goal tally of 55 in 50 appearances for Norway, is heavily expected to score quite a few goals in what is going to be his first World Cup.

Some consider him a prime candidate for the Golden Boot award, and most agree he will be in the race. It is true that a striker like Haaland, who is very capable of scoring a glut of goals in the group stage, often does not need to be a part of a team that goes especially deep into the tournament.

A group stage performance from Haaland comparable to Harry Kane’s in 2018 will ensure his place on the podium of the Golden Boot at least. But a group containing Iraq, Senegal and France sounds much more daunting for Haaland’s prospects. I predict that he will end the tournament with 4 or more goals shy of the golden boot winner.

2. Not more than 1 team from outside the CONMEBOL and UEFA members is going to feature in the quarterfinals.

It’s fair to shrug at this prediction, as very rarely does any team from outside Europe or South America appear in the last eight of the FIFA men’s World Cup. Over the last five tournaments, only Morocco, Costa Rica and Ghana have been able to manage this.

But while the last 32-team World Cup had more than half its participants from Europe and South America, this tournament of 48 teams will feature 26 countries from outside the two powerhouse continents.

And among them, a fair few like indomitable and ever-improving Japan, rejuvenated hosts Mexico, Pochettino’s highly talked-about USMNT, AFCON champions (albeit for two months) Senegal, and 2022 semifinalists Morocco are all tipped to bring quite a few surprises in their pursuit of a run deep into the tournament.

But I think the requirement of winning not one but two knock-out games, and the high possibility of facing strong European sides in those rounds, will make securing a quarterfinal berth difficult for most, if not all, of them. I will not be surprised if every single quarterfinalist comes from a UEFA or CONMEBOL country.

3. The number and percentage of knock-out games going to extra time and penalties will increase.

5 of the 16 knock-out games went to extra time in the knock-out stages of the last World Cup, and each of them was decided in penalties. 5 of the 16 knock-out games in the 2018 FIFA World Cup also went to extra time, with four of them going to tie-breakers.

This time, there will be 32 knock-out matches, so the absolute number of games going into extra-time will certainly increase, and I also predict an increase in a relative sense.

Widening the knockout pool and the harsh summer will result in more games in which teams are more committed to not losing than to winning. If I had to give a number, I would predict no fewer than 15 games going to extra time, and at least 11 of them requiring penalties for a result.

4. France will make it three World Cup final match appearances in a row

While there have been quite a few sides securing back-to-back World Cup final appearances, only the five-time champions Brazil (‘94, ‘98, ‘02) and four-time winners (West) Germany (‘82, ‘86 and ‘90) have been able to play the biggest game in three consecutive editions of the World Cup.

I think France will add their name to this list. France did not have a good Euro 2024, and the side seems a bit top-heavy, but still, they are firmly among the top three most likely teams to win the whole thing in my books. Also, the sheer rarity of the opportunity of making such a prediction makes me go for it.

5. African dreams will mostly be short-lived

Africa has the highest number of participants in this tournament of all continents except Europe. But I think only two of them, Senegal and Morocco, have any chance to secure a place in the top two of their respective groups.

It is near impossible to predict anything about the table of third-place teams, but I think there will only be one or at most two teams from Africa in the tournament when the round of sixteen begins. If this prediction goes wrong, I will be surprised but only pleasantly.

I would have been more confident if I made predictions regarding ICE raids, (relatively) empty stadiums or fatigue-induced player injuries in this World Cup, but we will have enough time to dissect such themes later. After the tournament, we will look back at how these predictions aged. For now, all eyes are on the grand kick-off.

 

Read more – Playing in the Shadow of Bombs: The Glaring Hypocrisy of  American World Cup

Also see – The Beautiful Game’s Ugly Reality: How Geopolitics and Host Hostility are Sabotaging Iraq’s World Cup Dream

Follow Footy Times on Social Media:

Facebook | Instagram | Twitter | YouTube